Growth of Bioenergy in a Turbulent World Continues

A year ago, I wrote a blog about the development of bioenergy and other energy production globally, using the 2023 scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) as a source. At the end of the blog, I stated: “Right now, the geopolitics exacerbated by dictatorships seems to be leading to block formation, restrictions on international trade, and rising defense spending due to accelerated armament. This, in turn, creates weaker global economic growth and more modest climate actions. The strong inflation and rising interest rates of recent years – contrary to dream scenarios – temporarily halted many capital-intensive energy investments. The development opportunities of climate policy, and thus also the development prospects of bioenergy, should be examined in these conditions.” 

COP Facing the Impossible?

Based on recent news, the text is still relevant – if not even more timely than a year ago. Wars have continued, and the geopolitical situation has progressed in a more dangerous direction, with no end in sight to the crises. Trump is once again creating a situation in international climate policy where inevitable development is slowed down at a time when investments in emission reductions should be accelerated. In this regard, it was a significant achievement that the recent climate conference in Baku (COP29) resulted in decisions on both climate financing for the next decade and international emissions trading (Article 6). However, the climate financing target is somewhat ambiguous and was immediately criticized from various quarters. It remains to be seen how these different interpretations will affect further negotiations on emission reductions. 

Growth of Renewable Energy Accelerates 

A positive turn has been seen in interest rates, which have already turned to a significant decline, and the trend is expected to continue. This should restore momentum to clean energy investments. 

Renewable energy has grown by about 33 EJ, over 50%, in the world from 2010 to 2023, regardless of Trump and his partners, and modern bioenergy accounted for half of this, i.e., about 50%, or 16 EJ. In 2023, about 61 EJ of bioenergy was produced globally, of which 19 EJ was traditional bioenergy, i.e., firewood use, and 42 EJ was modern bioenergy use. 

Does the growth of renewables sound good? The situation appears in a slightly different light if it is stated that fossil energy grew by about 71 EJ during the same period, more than twice as much. 

Before 2030, the situation is fortunately already turning: fossil energy use is now expected to decrease by 2030, while modern renewable energy is expected to grow by 42 EJ in the current policy scenario, with modern bioenergy accounting for 10 EJ. At the same time, the share of traditional bioenergy is expected to decrease by about 4 EJ. The growth is mainly focused on solid fuels and all sectors, while the share of liquid and gaseous fuels in the growth is about 10% each. 

In the net-zero economy scenario aiming for the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, modern renewable energy should grow more than twice as much in seven years, i.e., an incredible 87 EJ. Of this, the growth of modern bioenergy would be about 29 EJ, or one-third. In the net-zero scenario, the growth of bioenergy use is more evenly distributed to liquid and gaseous fuels, with their combined share rising to over 40%. 

Net-Zero Scenario Still Utopian

Are such growth expectations reasonable? History has shown that the bright-eyed intentions of governments do not always come true. On the other hand, sometimes goals can also be exceeded. According to the IEA, modern renewable energy grew by 7 EJ from 2021 to 2023, of which modern bioenergy accounted for about 4 EJ. At this growth rate, we would end up with about 25 EJ growth from 2023 to 2030, so the policy scenario’s 42 EJ seems quite possible with a little acceleration. Tripling the pace, on the other hand, would require either a revolution in policy measures or technology worldwide simultaneously over the next seven years. In this world situation, it seems quite utopian. Such a path is not being followed for bioenergy. 

Significant Role of Traditional Bioenergy Change

In the net-zero scenario, as last year, it is assumed that the reasonably significant use of traditional fuels (19 EJ) will be completely abandoned by 2030. According to the IEA, the change will mainly be achieved through electrification and the transition to the use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). For many reasons, this does not seem like a very reasonable starting point. There is far too little time, and it is a matter of deeply cultural issues worldwide – not just in Finland. Such a change is unlikely to be even administratively feasible. 

Long-Term Potential of Bioenergy

The IEA assumes in its scenarios that the growth of bioenergy will continue even after 2030 until 2050. Depending on the scenario, the usage level in 2050 would be between 80 and 100 EJ. According to the IEA, such development falls at the lower end of the potentials assessed by researchers setting sustainability requirements. The IEA has estimated that carbon capture and storage combined with bioenergy use will occur, especially in electricity production, in scenarios where emissions are reduced the most. 

Harri Laurikka